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TriSeadon Shipyard expansion.docx

Original document: TriSeadon Shipyard expansion.docx

Implementation Notes

Full Extract

1. Assumptions (Post–Industrial Base Build-Out)
	•	FFG: 500’ OAL × 68’ beam × 10,000t
	•	DDG: 650’ OAL × 88’ beam × 15,000t
	•	CAG: 800’ OAL × 108’ beam × 32,000t
Cost Drivers
	•	Yard efficiency gains:
	•	GOCO model = reduced profit margins (lease revenue substitutes some profit).
	•	Legacy yards = lowest cost (time + materials only).
	•	Private yards = slightly higher, but offset by loan assistance.
	•	DLA bulk buys: –10 to –15% per hull (steel, turbines, radars, VLS, pods).
	•	ISO & Node yards: Pre-outfitting cuts labor ~8–10%.
	•	Standardization across classes: Shared IMMs, IWMs, Cerberus mounts, radars, powerplants = reduced design churn.

2. Construction Time per Class
	•	FFG:
	•	Legacy US builds: ~36 months.
	•	TriSeadon modular method: 24 months per hull (parallel outfitting, JIT supply).
	•	DDG:
	•	Legacy Arleigh Burke Flight III: ~72 months.
	•	TriSeadon: 48 months per hull (fewer design changes, larger yards, modular inserts).
	•	CAG:
	•	Comparable to CGN/large CVN auxiliaries (5+ years historically).
	•	TriSeadon: 60 months per hull (standardized heavy-lift modules, fewer bespoke systems).

3. Cost per Ship (2025–2035 $ Estimates)
Baseline: Current U.S. Programs
	•	FFG-62: ~$1.4–1.6B each (and slipping higher).
	•	DDG-51 Flight III: ~$2.2–2.5B each.
	•	CG/large combatants: ~$6–7B if built today.
TriSeadon Adjusted Costs
	•	FFG: ~$1.25B → $1.0–1.1B each
	•	Savings: DLA steel bulk buy ($50–70M), GOCO/legacy margin cut (~$50–100M).
	•	DDG: ~$2.5B → $2.0–2.2B each
	•	Savings: Bulk VLS buys ($100–150M), standardized radar/powerplant (~$100M).
	•	CAG: ~$6B → $4.5–5.0B each
	•	Savings: Scale on steel & power ($250–300M), module standardization (~$200M).

4. Comparative Summary
Class
Displacement
Build Time
Legacy Cost (est.)
TriSeadon Cost
% Savings
FFG
~10,000t
24 mo
$1.4–1.6B
$1.0–1.1B
20–30%
DDG
~15,000t
48 mo
$2.2–2.5B
$2.0–2.2B
10–15%
CAG
~32,000t
60 mo
$6–7B
$4.5–5.0B
20–25%

✅ Bottom Line
	•	FFGs: Big winners — TriSeadon beats the troubled FFG-62 program by ~$400–600M per hull and delivers 1/3 faster.
	•	DDGs: Slightly cheaper but much faster — cutting 2 years off build cycle keeps fleet numbers up.
	•	CAGs: Still expensive, but $1.5–2B cheaper than comparable legacy cruisers; standardized modules make sustainment easier.
The real gain isn’t just per-hull cost but throughput: with parallel lanes, ISO nodes, and DLA buffers, the Navy avoids bottlenecks that have plagued every major program since the Cold War.


A. National “Capital” GOCO Yards (2 total, $5B each)
1. Mare Island, Vallejo, CA (West Coast)
	•	Ownership: Former Navy shipyard (federal land, much of it transferred to Vallejo but could potentially be re-acquired by federal action, purchase or land swap and congressional approval). 
	•	Footprint: ~1,400 acres (ample for 3 graving docks, 5 slipways, 5 piers, large module halls, storage).
	•	Infrastructure: Legacy drydock basins already exist, though major modernization required; deep-water access via San Pablo Bay.
	•	Capacity: 1 × Large (CAG) build lane, 1 × large refit dock, 2 × Medium (DDG/FFG) build lanes.
	•	Workforce: Bay Area + Central Valley, legacy shipyard labor pool, strong regional tech base.
	•	Investment: ~$5B modernization to create a full capital yard and cover Brownfield cleanup.
	•	Risk: Requires re-acquisition from City of Vallejo (political and legal complexity).
	•	Pros: Historic Navy site, proven deepwater, potential flagship yard west of Mississippi.
2. Port of Brownsville, TX (Gulf Coast)
	•	Ownership: ~40,000 acres controlled by Port of Brownsville (public navigation district).
	•	Candidate Parcel: ~302 acres currently marketed for industrial/maritime use (unpriced, but likely $15M–$60M based on comps).
	•	Infrastructure: 17-mile channel, ~42 ft draft (authorized deepening to 52 ft), on-dock rail, barge and truck access.
	•	Capacity: 1 × CAG build lane, 1 × large refit dock, 2 × Medium (DDG/FFG) build lanes.
	•	Investment: ~$5B for graving docks, Goliath cranes, module halls, logistics facilities. Hurricane hardening (N+1 power, onsite gen, surge protections
	•	Pros: Massive publicly owned port land; deepwater access; large labor pool from Gulf Coast ship/energy industries.
	•	Cons: Politically sensitive to repurpose land from a thriving commercial port; would require federal–state negotiation or federally driven reallocation.

B. Regional GOCO Yards (3 total, $3B each, except Marinette at $1B)
3. Marinette, WI (Great Lakes)
	•	Ownership: Formerly federal (BRAC); now operated by Fincantieri Marinette Marine. Could potentially be re-acquired via negotiated settlement.
	•	Footprint: ~300 acres, proven DDG/FFG new construction yard.
	•	Capacity: 2 × Medium (DDG/FFG) build lanes, 1 × medium refit.
	•	Investment: ~$1B for modernization into modular GOCO.
	•	Pros: Experienced shipbuilding workforce, existing infrastructure.
	•	Cons: Currently under private control—would require federal reacquisition.
	•	Possible replacements if Fincantieri won’t settle: NCBC Gulfport MS, Lake Charles, LA
4. Radio Island, Morehead City, NC (East Coast)
	•	Ownership: ~154 acres state-owned under NC Ports (within a 200-acre port complex). Expandable via dredge fill.
	•	Depth: 45–47 ft channel at Beaufort Inlet, no air-draft limits.
	•	Capacity: 2 × Medium (DDG/FFG) build lanes, 1 × medium refit, ISO/module support.
	•	Investment: ~$3B for slips, drydocks, and module halls.
	•	Workforce: Eastern NC labor pool (Onslow, Craven, Pitt Counties); strong pipeline from MCAS Cherry Point (≈3,800+ civilians/military) and Camp Lejeune (≈6,000+ civilians) for skilled trades.
	•	Pros: Public/state-controlled land; fewer existing conflicts than Charleston.
	•	Cons: Requires cooperation from NC Ports and state government; some dredging/land reclamation needed.
5. Port Tampa Bay, FL (Southeast)
	•	Ownership: Hillsborough County Port Authority (public).
	•	Footprint: ~1,000 acres industrial land, with parcels suitable for 250+ acres dedicated to shipyard. (portoftampa.com)
	•	Depth: 43 ft today, with federal project to deepen to ~47 ft under way. (portoftampa.com)
	•	Capacity: 2 × Medium (DDG/FFG) build lanes, 1 × Medium (DDG/FFG) refit, ample space for ISO/module shops and logistics staging.
	•	Workforce: Tampa/St. Petersburg metro area (~3.2M population) provides a large, relatively untapped industrial and veteran workforce.
	•	Pros: Public ownership (no private eminent domain); major port with planned deepening; large workforce outside existing Navy shipbuilding hubs.
	•	Cons: Shared with commercial and cruise shipping—would need careful site selection and coordination to avoid disruption.


1. National Shipyard Expansion
A. New GOCO Capital Yards (Flagships – $5B each)
Mare Island Vallejo CA & Brownsville Tx
	•	Land: Former Navy/industrial bases; re-aquired under federal control.
	•	Lanes:
	•	1 × Large (CAG/DDG/FFG) build
	•	1 × Large refit (CAG/DDG/FFG)
	•	2 × Medium (DDG/FFG) build
	•	Cranes: 600-ton Goliaths at each lane
	•	Cost: $5B each.
	•	Timeline: 2026–2032.
	•	ROI: 2–3% lease = $100–150M/yr per yard (perpetual lease income).
	•	Governance: Navy retains control; vendors lease lanes. Performance points system: on-time/under budget = +points (expand contracts); late/over budget = –points (risk replacement).

B. New GOCO Regional Yards ($3B each, Marinette $1B)
Tampa Bay FL, Radio Island NC, Marinette (WI)
	•	Land:
	•	Tampa Bay/ Radio Island: State Port Authority/DoD property.
	•	Marinette: transferred from Fincantieri under forfeiture settlement (yard acquired free; Navy invests $1B modernization).
	•	Lanes:
	•	2 × Medium (DDG/FFG) build
	•	1 × Medium refit (DDG/FFG)
	•	Cranes: 600-ton Goliaths per lane.
	•	Cost: $3B each (Charleston, Ingleside); $1B (Marinette).
	•	Timeline: 2026–2031.
	•	ROI: $60–90M/yr lease per yard.
	•	Governance: Same performance point system as capital GOCO yards.

C. Legacy Navy Yards (Navy-Run, Direct Federal Spend)
Norfolk (VA), Portsmouth (ME), Puget Sound (WA), Philadelphia (PA), Pearl Harbor (HI)
	•	Lanes:
	•	Norfolk: 1x Medium Build (DDG/FFG)
	•	Portsmouth: 1x Medium Build (DDG/FFG)
	•	Puget Sound: 1x Medium Build (DDG/FFG)
	•	Philadelphia: 1x Medium Build (DDG/FFG)(reclaim & modernize, $2B)
	•	Pearl Harbor: 1 × Large refit (CAG/DDG/FFG)
	•	Cranes: 600-ton Goliaths per lane.
	•	Cost: 4 × $1B + 1 × $2B = $6B.
	•	Timeline: 2027–2035.
	•	ROI: No income, lowest cost hulls (time + materials, no margin) overtime ROI.
	•	Strategic Role: Baseline comparison for GOCO/private yards; training pipelines; nuclear/CVN/SSN sustainment.

D. Private Yards (Loan-Assisted Expansion)
	•	Sites: 10 (Gulf, Great Lakes, East, West) — excluding DDG-51 program yards.
	•	Lanes: 1x Medium (DDG/FFG) build and/or 1x Medium (DDG/FFG) refit lane with 1x 600t crane.
	•	Cost: $500M each = $5B total.
	•	Funding: 1% fixed federal loans, repayment begins after first hull.
	•	Timeline: 2027–2035.
	•	ROI: Net-neutral — ~$5.75B repaid on $5B loans.
	•	Strategic Role: Widens base, creates control factors to measure against GOCO/legacy performance, uses skilled contractors to set training and skills for other yards.

E. ISO & Module Yards (State Partnerships)
	•	Sites: 20 across 20 states.
	•	Scale: 5–20 acre facilities.
	•	Products: ISO pods, berthing nodes, Cerberus CIWS mounts
	•	Cranes: Container cranes/forklifts only.
	•	Cost: $250M each = $5B total.
	•	50/50 split: $2.5B federal loan @2% + $2.5B state/local.
	•	Timeline: 2026–2030.
	•	ROI: Loan fully repaid (~$2.9B). States keep jobs; federal cost ~0.
	•	Strategic Role: Expands political footprint to 20+ states; keeps module supply distributed.

2. Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) Supply Chain Model
A. Central Procurement
	•	DLA = single buyer of steel, engines, turbines, radars, VLS, batteries, IMMs, IWMs, Odyssey pods, Cerberus CIWS, DEW.
	•	Buys 10–20 shipsets at a time; reduces cost 10–15%.
	•	Steel requires new domestic naval-grade mills (Midwest/South). Federal loans finance upgrades.
B. Depots & Logistics
	•	4 regional depots:
	•	East Coast (Norfolk/Philly)
	•	Gulf Coast (Mobile/Ingalls)
	•	West Coast (SF Bay Area)
	•	Midwest (Great Lakes/Marinette)
	•	Store shipsets, modules, ISOs; deliver JIT to yards.
C. Strategic Inventory Doctrine
	•	Baseline: 10 FFG + 10 DDG + 4 CAG shipsets (24 ships).
	•	Golden Rule: If inventory vs build conflicts → build wins. No yard sits idle.
	•	Scale-up:
	•	2026–30: 2–3 FFG + 1–2 DDG sets.
	•	2030–35: 5 FFG + 5 DDG + 2 CAG.
	•	2035+: steady 10/10/4 floor.
D. Funding
	•	2026–30: $3–4B (steel mill loans, depot builds, turbine contracts).
	•	2030+: $1.5–2.5B annually (sustain reserves + active builds).
	•	Steel mill loans repaid at 2–3%.

3. Financial Picture
Category
Sites
Cost
ROI/Repayments
Net Federal Impact
New GOCO Flagships
2
$10B
$200–300M/yr lease
$10B
New GOCO Regionals
3
$7B
$180–270M/yr lease
$7B
Legacy Navy Yards
5
$6B
None (cheapest hulls)
$6B
Private Yards
10
$5B loans
~$5.75B repaid
≈0
ISO/Module Yards
20
$2.5B fed loans + $2.5B states
~$2.9B repaid
≈0
Steel Mills & Depots
—
$3–4B loans
Repaid at 2–3%
≈0
Gross Federal Outlay: ~$31–32B
Repayments: ~$11–12B
Net Federal Cost: ~$19–21B over 6–8 years
Ongoing Lease ROI: ~$380–570M/yr (GOCO yards)

4. Timeline (Phases)
	•	2026–2029: Marinette online (2 FFG lanes). ISO yards in first 10 states. Tampa/Radio construction.
	•	2028–2032: Mare Island & Brownsville (CAG build/refit). Tampa/Radio DDG lanes open. First legacy yards (VA, ME, WA) online.
	•	2030–2035: Philadelphia DDG lane active. Pearl Harbor CAG refit ready. All ISO yards finished. Private yard expansions complete.
	•	2035+: Full national capacity online: ~14 DDG/FFG buildways, 10 DDG/FFG drydocks, 2–3 CAG docks, 17 fit-out berths. Steady state: 8 FFG/yr, 6 DDG/yr, 2 CAG/yr + parallel refits.

✅ Why This Works
	•	Control: GOCO yards federally owned — Navy can swap out poor performers without losing capacity.
	•	Performance Management: Lease point system enforces accountability (On-Time/On-Budget = rewarded; late/over = penalized).
	•	Redundancy & Competition: 5 GOCO, 5 Navy-run, 10 private = three comparative streams; prevents bottlenecks.
	•	5 new GoCo shipyards are in new workforce areas providing untapped labor options.
	•	Resilience: DLA keeps 24 shipsets in reserve but prioritizes throughput (no idle yards).
	•	Steel Security: Federal loans ensure U.S. naval steel capacity expands without taxpayer-owned mills.
	•	Politics: 25–30 states benefit via GOCO, legacy, private, and ISO yards.
	•	Redundancy in case of vendor failure, weather, war access to multiple shipyards to continue building refitting ships throughout the TriSeadon program.
	•	Affordability: Net Federal spend ~$20B, easily absorbed by Navy’s $40–47B annual shipbuilding budget.
	•	Return: GOCO yards generate ~$400–600M/yr lease income; legacy yards lower per-hull costs; private/ISO/state yards repay loans.