Program Risk Register

Reviewed August 2026

Use

Ratings are preliminary. Program leadership must assign accountable owners, quantitative thresholds, review dates, and closure evidence before authorization. A fallback preserves a buildable fleet when an objective system is delayed.

Risk	Category	Probability	Consequence	Leading indicator	Mitigation	Fallback	Decision authority	Review date
Requirements growth	Acquisition	High	Critical	Changes after baseline lock	Configuration board and funded blocks	Defer change	Program executive	Quarterly
Baseline instability	Engineering	High	Critical	Unclosed requirements at PDR	Interface and baseline freeze	Pause authorization	Navy technical authority	Each design review
Cost underestimation	Financial	High	Critical	Independent estimate variance	CAPE, CBO, and Navy estimates	Rescope or rephase	Milestone decision authority	Annual
Yard activation delay	Industrial	High	High	Permits or construction miss critical path	Wave activation and alternate sites	Shift starts to ready yards	Industrial program lead	Monthly
Workforce shortages	Workforce	High	High	Vacancy or attrition threshold exceeded	Portable credentials and staged hiring	Shift modules or cadence	Workforce lead	Quarterly
Supply-chain concentration	Logistics	High	Critical	Sole-source or lead-time alert	Second sources and strategic inventory	Certified substitute	DLA and Navy supply lead	Monthly
Module-interface failure	Engineering	High	High	Reference module fails fit or test	Digital thread and physical qualification	Fixed installation	Interface authority	Each certification
Software integration	Technical	High	Critical	Land-site regression or cyber test failure	Incremental releases and land integration	Fielded baseline	Combat-system authority	Each release
Mk 57 PVLS missile certification	Weapons	High	High	Weapon qualification slips	Early certification and production plan	Mk 41 VLS IWM	Weapons authority	Quarterly
APM availability	Weapons	High	High	Launcher or payload schedule slip	Independent large-payload lane	Defer payload	Weapons authority	Quarterly
Pod qualification	Propulsion	High	Critical	Hydrodynamic, acoustic, shock, or endurance failure	Full qualification program	Shaft and rudder	Propulsion authority	Each test gate
Battery safety	Power	High	Critical	Thermal event or containment failure	Containment, ventilation, suppression, certification	Reduced battery role	Electrical and safety authorities	Each test gate
Trinion development	Weapons	High	Critical	Recoil, cost, accuracy, or ammunition failure	Incremental land test and cost gate	Mk 45 Mod 4 or certified gun	Weapons authority	Each test gate
Sensor integration	Combat systems	Medium	Critical	Power, cooling, EMI, or track-quality shortfall	Land-based and shipset integration	Certified baseline fit	Combat-system authority	Each design review
Excessive topside weight	Naval architecture	Medium	Critical	KG or service-life margin breached	Weight control and independent stability review	Remove deferred payload	Chief naval architect	Monthly
Cooling margin	Power	High	High	Mission profile exceeds heat-rejection margin	Zonal cooling model and growth reserve	Limit simultaneous loads	Electrical authority	Each design review
Acoustic performance	ASW	Medium	High	Measured signature misses objective	Model, isolate, and conduct full-scale trials	Machinery or propulsor correction	ASW authority	Trial gates
Schedule concurrency	Acquisition	High	Critical	Construction begins before design/test maturity	Entry criteria and schedule-risk analysis	Delay start	Milestone decision authority	Before each start
State participation shortfall	Industrial	Medium	High	Match or site commitments lapse	Wave competition and alternates	Reallocate campus	Industrial program lead	Each wave
Environmental cleanup delay	Environmental	High	High	Unknown plume, liability, or permit delay	Early characterization and phased construction	Alternate parcel	Federal environmental lead	Monthly
DLA inventory cost	Logistics	High	High	Obsolescence or carrying cost exceeds plan	Demand signals and controlled reserve levels	Slow or redirect production	DLA program lead	Quarterly
Governance fragmentation	Governance	Medium	Critical	Conflicting waivers or authorities	Single configuration authority and oversight	Pause expansion	Service acquisition executive	Quarterly

Risk Heat Map | Readiness Matrix | Lessons Learned